Abstract
In this paper, the researcher explored published evidence of predictive validity for the Florida Assessments of Instruction in Reading (FAlR) as it pertains to subsequent proficiency on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) in reading for middle school students within the pm1icipating school district. The Florida Center for Reading Research (FCRR) (2009) has published moderate correlations between the risk status designation of the FAIR and subsequent FCAT reading proficiency. This study examined that relationship with a large (n=8477) sample of middle school students within one school district. Analysis with logistic regression identified a significant. predictive relationship for students within the sample. Additionally. the researcher performed linear regression analyses on the FCAT Success Probability (FSP) metric of the FAIR and subsequent FCAT reading scale scores and identified a significant predictive relationship between FSP and FCAT reading scale scores. Combining a student's risk status and raw FSP may hold promise in increasing the predictive power of the FAIR. The researcher also recommends additional research into the change in risk status across assessment periods in order to quantify the effectiveness of classroom interventions and thereby better evaluate the predictive power of the FAIR.