Abstract
While the coastal ecosystems of the Southeastern United States have been impacted by hurricanes for millennia, recovery may be reduced by their increased intensity under climate change. There is thus an urgent need to further research on storm damage and recovery, especially in urban forests, which are understudied despite the threat to public safety posed by tree hazards, the considerable expense of tree removals, and the loss of ecosystem services from removed trees. The research objective was to assess risk factors for hurricane-induced tree failure in the Naples Urban Forest (NUF) using advanced geographic information systems (GIS) and machine learning. Spatial analyses were performed to evaluate spatial patterns of failure in the NUF for Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Ian (2022), revealing that failure for both hurricanes was spatially clustered with hot spots in the northern part of Naples, Florida. A random forest classification model was built to determine whether tree-level, environment-level, and management-level factors predict failure in the NUF. With 89% accuracy, the model revealed that a tree’s location, size, and species were the strongest predictors of failure in 2022 for Hurricane Ian. Factors associated with a higher risk of failure included a smaller aboveground biomass, tree diameter, or tree height; planting sites at a higher elevation, at a lower urban tree density, or closer to buildings, inland waterbodies, or the coast; and infrequent pruning. Given these findings, urban forest managers should consider species selection, site suitability, and tree maintenance in their management plan. Hurricane-resistant species should be prioritized for public plantings while promoting species diversity and ecosystem services. Newly planted trees should receive sufficient care to support their establishment between hurricanes. By improving management practices in line with these insights, hurricane-prone municipalities may increase public safety, decrease public expenditure, and enhance coastal resilience in the context of climate change and intensified hurricane impacts.
