Abstract
Despite widespread research on the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARIAs), few studies focus on the applicability of these tools to the prediction of serial offending perpetrated by specific sexual offender subtypes such as the sexual aggressive rapist. The present study compares the predictive validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 sexual scale (RM2000/S) and the Static-99 in the prediction of patterns of serial sexual violence perpetrated by a sample of offenders in Florida convicted of at least three sexually violent offenses including one conviction for sexual battery coerced through threat or use of force or sexual battery resulting in serious bodily injury (n = 33).Using archival data available from the Florida Department of Corrections Offender databases, each participant was assessed for recidivism risk based on his first eligible conviction for a sexual offense using both instruments. These scores were then compared to the participants’ criminal histories to evaluate the accuracy of the rendered recidivism risk rates. The Static-99 marginally outperformed the RM2000/S in the prediction of sexual recidivism (AUC = .929, p < 0.01; AUC = .872, p < 0.05); however, the results indicate that both instruments have high predictive validity in the identification of future patterns of serial sexual violence.