Abstract
Mangroves are among the most diverse and ecologically significant coastal ecosystems, providing habitat, facilitating nutrient cycling, storing blue carbon, and offering natural protection against storm surges and shoreline erosion. Despite these services, mangroves are declining globally due to the acceleration of climate hazards and human pressures. Here, we combine Sentinel‑2 Earth observation and a 2024 grid‑based field survey with the InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment (HRA) model to quantify species‑specific habitat risk in the Indian Sundarbans. Rather than treating mudflats, sand, and water as “anthropogenic stressors”, we represent them as key physical drivers (mudflat dynamics, sandy‑substrate instability, and hydroperiod/water‑availability) that modulate exposure and consequences when they spatially overlap mangrove habitats, together with mapped anthropogenic and climatic pressures (e.g., salinity intrusion, pollution, land‑use encroachment and tourism/boating intensity). The HRA outputs identify stressed hotspots and differentiate vulnerability across ten true mangrove species, enabling the prioritization of restoration and conservation zoning. The results indicate that habitat degradation and ineffective management can amplify risk, while targeted nature-based solutions and stakeholder co-management can enhance resilience. Overall, this cloud–enabled EO–InVEST framework provides a transparent and transferable tool to support adaptive mangrove management and evidence-based coastal planning in densely populated, hazard-prone deltas.
