Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Karen M. Douglas; Robbie M. Sutton; Caspar J. Van Lissa; Wolfgang Stroebe; Jannis Kreienkamp; Maximilian Agostini; Jocelyn J. Bélanger; Ben Gützkow; Georgios Abakoumkin; Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom; Vjollca Ahmedi; Handan Akkas; Carlos A. Almenara; Mohsin Atta; Sabahat Cigdem Bagci; Sima Basel; Edona Berisha Kida; Allan B. I. Bernardo; Nicholas R. Buttrick; Phatthanakit Chobthamkit; Hoon‐Seok Choi; Mioara Cristea; Sára Csaba; Kaja Damnjanovic; Ivan Danyliuk; Arobindu Dash; Daniela Di Santo; Violeta Enea; Daiane Gracieli Faller; Gavan Fitzsimons; Alexandra Gheorghiu; Ángel Gómez; Ali Hamaidia; Qing Han; Mai Helmy; Joevarian Hudiyana; Bertus F. Jeronimus; Ding‐ Yu Jiang; Veljko Jovanović; Željka Kamenov; Anna Kende; Shian‐Ling Keng; Tra Thi Thanh Kieu; Yasin Koc; Kamila Kovyazina; Inna Kozytska; Joshua Krause; Arie W. Kruglanski; Anton Kurapov; Maja Kutlaca; Nóra Anna Lantos; Edward P. Lemay; Cokorda Bagus Jaya Lesmana; Winnifred R. Louis; Adrian Lueders; Najma Iqbal Malik; Anton Martinez; Kira O. McCabe; Jasmina Mehulić; Mirra Noor Milla; Idris Mohammed; Erica Molinario; Manuel Moyano; Hayat Muhammad; Silvana Mula; Hamdi Muluk; Solomiia Myroniuk; Reza Najafi; Claudia F. Nisa; Boglárka Nyúl; Paul A. O'Keefe; Jose Javier Olivas Osuna; Evgeny N. Osin; Joonha Park; Gennaro Pica; Antonio Pierro; Jonas Rees; Anne Margit Reitsema; Elena Resta; Marika Rullo; Michelle K. Ryan; Adil Samekin; Pekka Santtila; Edyta Sasin; Birga M. Schumpe; Heyla A. Selim; Michael Vicente Stanton; Samiah Sultana; Eleftheria Tseliou; Akira Utsugi; Jolien Anne van Breen; Kees Van Veen; Michelle R. vanDellen; Alexandra Vázquez; Robin Wollast; Victoria Wai‐Lan Yeung; Somayeh Zand; Iris L. Žeželj; Bang Zheng; Andreas Zick; Claudia Zúñiga; N. Pontus Leander

doi:10.1002/ejsp.2968

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Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

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Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Karen M. Douglas, Robbie M. Sutton, Caspar J. Van Lissa, Wolfgang Stroebe, Jannis Kreienkamp, Maximilian Agostini, Jocelyn J. Bélanger, Ben Gützkow, Georgios Abakoumkin, Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom, …

European journal of social psychology, Vol.53(6)

06-30-2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2968

Appears in United Nations Sustainable Development Goals @ FGCU (featuring SDGs 3, 4, 14, and 15)

Abstract

conspiracy theories

country-level variables

COVID-19

machine learning

individual-level variables

Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies.

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Title: Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis
Creators: Karen M. Douglas - University of Kent
Robbie M. Sutton - University of Kent
Caspar J. Van Lissa - Tilburg University
Wolfgang Stroebe - University of Groningen
Jannis Kreienkamp - University of Groningen
Maximilian Agostini - University of Groningen
Jocelyn J. Bélanger - New York University Abu Dhabi
Ben Gützkow - University of Groningen
Georgios Abakoumkin - University of Thessaly
Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom - International Islamic University Malaysia
Vjollca Ahmedi - University of Prishtina
Handan Akkas - Ankara University
Carlos A. Almenara - Peruvian University of Applied Sciences
Mohsin Atta - University of Sargodha
Sabahat Cigdem Bagci - Sabancı Üniversitesi
Sima Basel - New York University Abu Dhabi
Edona Berisha Kida - University of Prishtina
Allan B. I. Bernardo - De La Salle University
Nicholas R. Buttrick - University of Virginia
Phatthanakit Chobthamkit - Thammasat University
Hoon‐Seok Choi - Sungkyunkwan University
Mioara Cristea - Heriot-Watt University
Sára Csaba - Eötvös Loránd University
Kaja Damnjanovic - University of Belgrade
Ivan Danyliuk - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Arobindu Dash - International University of Business Agriculture and Technology
Daniela Di Santo - University of Pisa
Violeta Enea - Alexandru Ioan Cuza University
Daiane Gracieli Faller - Independent Researcher Singapore
Gavan Fitzsimons - Duke University
Alexandra Gheorghiu - Alexandru Ioan Cuza University
Ángel Gómez - Comunidad de Madrid
Ali Hamaidia - University Ferhat Abbas of Setif
Qing Han - University of Bristol
Mai Helmy - Menoufia University
Joevarian Hudiyana - University of Indonesia
Bertus F. Jeronimus - University of Groningen
Ding‐ Yu Jiang - National Chung‐Cheng University Minhsiung Taiwan
Veljko Jovanović - University of Novi Sad
Željka Kamenov - University of Zagreb
Anna Kende - Eötvös Loránd University
Shian‐Ling Keng - Yale-NUS College
Tra Thi Thanh Kieu - HCMC University of Education Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam
Yasin Koc - University of Groningen
Kamila Kovyazina - Independent Researcher Kazakhstan
Inna Kozytska - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Joshua Krause - University of Groningen
Arie W. Kruglanski - University of Maryland, College Park
Anton Kurapov - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Maja Kutlaca - Durham University
Nóra Anna Lantos - Eötvös Loránd University
Edward P. Lemay - University of Maryland, College Park
Cokorda Bagus Jaya Lesmana - Udayana University
Winnifred R. Louis - The University of Queensland
Adrian Lueders - University of Hohenheim
Najma Iqbal Malik - University of Sargodha
Anton Martinez - University of Sheffield
Kira O. McCabe - Carleton University
Jasmina Mehulić - University of Zagreb
Mirra Noor Milla - University of Indonesia
Idris Mohammed - Usmanu Danfodiyo University
Erica Molinario - Florida Gulf Coast University
Manuel Moyano - University of Córdoba
Hayat Muhammad - University of Peshawar
Silvana Mula - Sapienza University of Rome
Hamdi Muluk - University of Indonesia
Solomiia Myroniuk - University of Groningen
Reza Najafi - University of Padua
Claudia F. Nisa - New York University Abu Dhabi
Boglárka Nyúl - Eötvös Loránd University
Paul A. O'Keefe - Yale-NUS College
Jose Javier Olivas Osuna - National Distance Education University (UNED) Madrid Spain
Evgeny N. Osin - National Research University Higher School of Economics
Joonha Park - Nagoya University of Commerce and Business
Gennaro Pica - Università di Camerino
Antonio Pierro - University of Pisa
Jonas Rees - University of Bielefeld Bielefeld Germany
Anne Margit Reitsema - University of Groningen
Elena Resta - University of Pisa
Marika Rullo - University of Siena
Michelle K. Ryan - University of Groningen
Adil Samekin - Maqsut Narikbayev University
Pekka Santtila - New York University Shanghai
Edyta Sasin - New York University Abu Dhabi
Birga M. Schumpe - University of Amsterdam
Heyla A. Selim - King Saud University
Michael Vicente Stanton - California State University, East Bay
Samiah Sultana - University of Groningen
Eleftheria Tseliou - University of Thessaly
Akira Utsugi - Nagoya University
Jolien Anne van Breen - Leiden University
Kees Van Veen - University of Groningen
Michelle R. vanDellen - University of Georgia
Alexandra Vázquez - Comunidad de Madrid
Robin Wollast - University of Kent
Victoria Wai‐Lan Yeung - University of Hong Kong
Somayeh Zand - University of Milano-Bicocca
Iris L. Žeželj - University of Belgrade
Bang Zheng - Imperial College London
Andreas Zick - University of Bielefeld Bielefeld Germany
Claudia Zúñiga - Universidad de Chile Santiago Chile
N. Pontus Leander - Wayne State University
Publication Details: European journal of social psychology, Vol.53(6)
Publisher: WILEY
Number of pages: 13
Grant note: New York University Abu Dhabi: VCDSF/75-71015 University of GroningenHORIZON EUROPE European Research Council: 101018262 Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research: 20KK0056 European Research Council (ERC): 101018262
New York University Abu Dhabi, Grant/Award Number: VCDSF/75-71015; University of Groningen (Sustainable Society & Ubbo Emmius Fund); HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council, Grant/Award Number: 101018262
Identifiers: 99383941543206570
Academic Unit: Department of Psychology
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Abstract

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)