Abstract
Significant Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) have widespread implications for the environment, economy, and society, influencing the future sustainability and development of a region. This study aimed to assess LULCC from 1990 to 2020 and project future LULCC from 2030 to 2100 for the Irrawaddy Delta using remote sensing and simulations with the artificial neural networks-cellular automata method. The findings showed significant LULCC in the Delta, particularly for the mangrove forests and cropland areas. Mangrove coverage was 1,471 km2 in 1990 but decreased to 1,282 km2 in 2020, and simulations predict a further reduction to 1,277 km2 in 2100. Cropland areas increased from 10,550 km2 to 10,618 km2 in 2020, with simulations projecting a slight decrease to 10,586 km2 by 2100. Human activities and cyclonic events, especially in the southern part of the region, have led to cropland and impervious areas replacing dense mangrove and forested areas. These changes threaten the ecological integrity of the Delta and impact local livelihoods and biodiversity. The study underscores the need for sustainable land management practices and policies to mitigate the adverse effects of LULCC and ensure the resilience of the Irrawaddy Delta against ongoing environmental challenges.
